Middle East oil exports have rebounded, climbing above pre-war levels recorded before the US-Israel conflict in February, despite Tehran’s persistent attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz and target commercial vessels. Provisional data from maritime tracking firm Kpler indicates that crude exports from the region reached between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on four separate days during the final week of September. This figure marks a notable increase from the pre-war average of approximately 18 million bpd. Closure of the strait has caused global fuel costs to soar and has tested agricultural sectors across the world. According to kpler, Crude exports excluding Iran had also recovered to at least 16.5 million bpd as an average over September.
While this surge in activity is partly attributed to US naval escorts and an increase in ship-to-ship transfers that mitigate the risk of drone and missile strikes, experts are exploring alternative explanations for the steady flow. Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, has suggested that some nations might be paying informal tolls to Iran to ensure their tankers receive safe passage. In an interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston, Brohard noted, “I suspect there is a toll that’s being paid, which is giving these ships safe passage.”
Brohard further speculated that these countries likely realize the reliance on US naval protection is unsustainable, as is the potential cost of paying Iran 10 to 20 percent of their cargo’s value. She characterized the current shipping environment as a “race to get out as much as possible, as quickly as possible before the war restarts.” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at the IG Group, suggested that such a scenario is “in part” plausible, noting that much of the activity in the region is occurring “under the radar.” Meanwhile, the fact that oil prices have remained high has been explained by analysts as the result of still-elevated insurance rates — driven by fears of Iranian attacks — and a market factoring in the possibility of a return to a hot war. And what does it mean for the war and oil prices, does this explanation hold up. According to the Trump administration, during the course of the war, has repeatedly, Iran will not be permitted to charge a toll under any potential agreement with Washington.
Although these claims remain speculative and lack independent verification, they follow reports from Lloyd’s List earlier this year suggesting that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had established a “toll booth” system to monitor and control maritime traffic. Furthermore, the US government recently imposed sanctions on BitBank, a digital assets firm accused of facilitating payments for the Iran-linked Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority, a body purportedly created to collect transit fees.
The current export figures also highlight shifting logistics in the region. According to Kpler, roughly 40 percent of crude now bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely, with significant volumes flowing through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, many vessels are utilizing the Red Sea as an alternative route. However, these Kpler figures likely omit vessels that transit with their automatic identification systems (AIS) disabled to avoid detection.
In contrast, Tehran maintains that it retains control over the waterway. Senior IRGC commander Ali Fadavi recently described the volume of traffic utilizing US-supervised routes as “negligible” compared to pre-war standards, which saw roughly 125 commercial vessels traversing the strait daily. This perspective stands in tension with recent incidents, including a Sunday report from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) stating that an oil tanker was ordered to turn back by the IRGC under threat of attack.
Despite the recovery in export volumes, energy markets remain volatile. Brent crude was trading at approximately $101.59 per barrel on Monday, while US West Texas Intermediate sat at $90.05. Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, emphasized that long-term energy security remains uncertain. “The Strait of Hormuz remains a major flashpoint,” she observed, noting that persistent threats of disruption keep the market on edge.
Academic and maritime expert Abdul Khalique, head of the Liverpool John Moores University Maritime Centre, suggests that while an informal security arrangement may be “plausible,” there is currently no public evidence to confirm the existence of a systematic, state-run maritime levy. Instead, he views the current system as an informal security mechanism rather than a formal, legalistic toll. And Brohard presented it as speculation rather than a finding backed by evidence, the claim has not been independently verified.
Ultimately, the shipping industry continues to face significant challenges beyond transit fees. Beauchamp pointed to the “problem of shipping” as a primary concern, noting that Asian buyers are increasingly forced to source crude from greater distances, which results in significantly longer transit times and higher operational costs, a factor he describes as more difficult to solve than the immediate threat of regional conflict.