Yemen’s government forces have launched a series of air strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in an effort to push back against recent territorial gains made by the group. The conflict has intensified over the past week as the Houthis target areas previously under government control, leading to a surge in violence that has displaced over 85,000 civilians since the beginning of September. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), this humanitarian crisis includes more than 2,000 individuals who have already fled across the sea to Djibouti’s northern coastline.
The current military focus rests on Marib, the internationally recognized government’s final major stronghold in northern Yemen. Analysts warn that if the Houthis succeed in capturing this region, it could represent a watershed moment that decisively alters the war’s trajectory. Marib is not only a symbol of resistance but also a critical economic hub, hosting the country’s most significant oil and gas infrastructure. Controlling these assets would provide the Houthis with a powerful revenue stream and substantial leverage in any eventual mediation efforts.
Saddam al-Huraibi, a Yemeni political commentator, noted that the Houthis have pursued control of Marib’s energy resources for over a decade and will continue their offensive unless they face a major defeat. For government forces, the defense of the city is an existential struggle. Adam Baron, a fellow at the New America think tank’s Future Security Program, emphasized that losing Marib would be an absolute crushing defeat for the government, while also serving as a potent propaganda tool for the Houthis to bolster their momentum and morale.
Beyond its energy assets, Marib is a crucial refuge for civilians. Following the Houthi seizure of Sanaa in 2014, the city became a haven for those escaping the rebels. IOM data from 2023 indicates that Marib currently hosts 58 percent of Yemen’s nearly 2.8 million internally displaced people. Geographically, the city sits on the primary transit route linking northern Yemen to the southern governorates of Shabwa and al-Mahra, which border the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.
Fighting has simultaneously flared in Taiz on the western coast, where Saudi-supported government forces are conducting a counteroffensive to reclaim territory lost in recent clashes. Taiz holds immense strategic value as a bridge connecting the rebel-held north with the government-held south and the critical Red Sea coastline. Controlling this region grants tactical dominance over the movement of supplies and weaponry between the country’s interior and the southern port of Aden.
The conflict in western Taiz also extends toward the historic town of Mocha and the Bab al-Mandeb strait. This 20km-wide maritime chokepoint is a vital artery for global commerce, with approximately 12 percent of international trade passing through it before the recent escalation. The Houthis have secured much of the Red Sea coast, including Mayyun Island, placing them in closer proximity to this global shipping lane.
Fuad Mussed, a Yemeni analyst and author, argues that these movements are part of a long-term strategy by Tehran to exert influence over both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. By controlling these waterways, the Houthis can utilize maritime traffic as leverage against international and regional actors. For Saudi Arabia, the potential loss of security in the Red Sea represents a significant concern, as the kingdom relies on these waters to export oil while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Ultimately, the battles for Marib and Taiz are being viewed by all involved parties as the potential deciding factor for how the war concludes. Nabil Hetari, a writer and human rights activist, observed that the high stakes involved in these regions make them the focal point for determining the future nature of the conflict’s resolution. The report also notes that a video released on Monday by the Yemeni army purports to show Houthi positions and vehicles being bombed there. The report also notes that the city became an important centre of resistance to the Houthis after they seized Sanaa in 2014 and has endured years of fighting and restrictions on access, one of Yemen’s largest population centres. The report also notes that a major Houthi breakthrough there would therefore carry symbolic significance far beyond the territory captured. The report also notes that connecting Europe to Asia, the 20km- (12-mile-)wide waterway lies between Yemen and Djibouti.