Houthi forces have completed their takeover of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, reaching the vital Bab al-Mandeb shipping gateway following a rapid offensive that concluded on Friday. The capture of the port city of Mocha on Thursday represents a significant tactical blow to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, marking what analysts describe as the most consequential regional shift since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran in February.
Yemen has remained in a state of conflict since 2014, when Houthi rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, and the port of Hodeidah, forcing the government to retreat. Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015 to restore the government and counter Iran’s regional influence. Although a 2022 UN-brokered truce temporarily paused hostilities, intermittent fighting has persisted, escalating into some of the most intense clashes in years during the past week as the Houthis pushed to secure the coast.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait serves as a critical artery for international commerce, with roughly 12 percent of global trade passing through the narrow passage daily. The volume of traffic has increased significantly since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled about 20 percent of the world’s annual energy supplies. By controlling the Yemeni coast, the Houthis have gained a strategic foothold that threatens to exacerbate the global energy crisis.
For Saudi Arabia, the Houthi advancement poses a direct threat to oil exports. Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh has relied heavily on the East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, which transports oil from the Abqaiq field to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The kingdom has increased this pipeline to its full capacity of seven million barrels per day—up from five million before the war—resulting in a 21 percent surge in Saudi oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb corridor.
The Houthis have already begun targeting Saudi energy infrastructure, with reports of smoke rising from the East-West pipeline on Friday, though Saudi officials have not confirmed a strike. Experts suggest the group intends to open a major front in the broader US-Iran conflict, providing Tehran with significant leverage. Alam Saleh, a professor of international relations at the Australian National University, noted that the situation effectively means Iran now controls both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb, stating, “Iran has now played the card of global oil prices and energy security. So the Houthis controlling Bab al-Mandeb benefits Iran dramatically.”
The development places mounting pressure on the administration of US President Donald Trump, as rising fuel and food prices impact domestic politics ahead of the November mid-term elections. While Washington has relied on a strategy of economic pressure and military strikes, Saleh suggests that the US is running out of time to shift the regional balance in its favor. Furthermore, the Houthi victory signals to global powers like China and Russia that US military influence in the Middle East is waning.
Despite their recent territorial gains, the long-term sustainability of a Houthi blockade remains a subject of debate. While Mohamad Elmasry of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies described the Houthis as a “fighting force that is probably more advanced than the force that the Saudis were fighting against about a decade ago,” other experts are skeptical. Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, argued that the group is “terrible” at governance and may struggle to maintain a formal blockade. However, he noted that even the mere perception of danger is often sufficient to deter shipping companies and insurance firms from entering the strait.
The military disparity remains notable, with Yemeni government forces estimated at 300,000 troops compared to approximately 250,000 Houthi fighters. Analysts attribute the government’s recent defeat to internal fragmentation and a lack of cohesion, which contrasts sharply with the Houthis’ adaptability. Access to Iranian-supplied technology, including drones, missiles, and advanced air defense systems, has further bolstered the group’s capabilities. Despite Saudi forces launching dozens of missiles at Houthi-held areas like Mocha in the last 24 hours, the offensive has continued unabated. The report also notes that the group has since battled a Saudi-backed military coalition of Gulf states fighting on the side of the internationally recognised government of Yemen based in Aden, with Iran’s backing. The report also notes that oil can then be shipped via that sea route instead of the Gulf. The report also notes that the pipeline has been active since the 1980s and was purpose-built to avoid disruption in Hormuz. The report also notes that it was temporarily shut down during Houthi drone attacks in 2019. The report also notes that but much reduced shipping volumes suggest Iran has the upper hand, observers say, both Iran and the US claim to be in control of the Strait of Hormuz.