Current August Fuel Rates
- Super 98: Dh3.60 per litre
- Special 95: Dh3.49 per litre
- E-Plus 91: Dh3.41 per litre
- Diesel: Dh3.80 per litre
UAE motorists are awaiting the official announcement of fuel prices for September today. The outlook remains finely balanced, as global oil markets experienced significant volatility toward the end of August. Brent crude, which serves as a key indicator for energy costs, settled at $89.31 a barrel on Friday, marking a weekly decline of more than 5%. This retreat was largely driven by market speculation regarding potential progress in securing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
While the late-month price drop offers some potential for relief, the broader context of August suggests that a major reduction is unlikely. Throughout much of the month, Brent averaged approximately $87.70 per barrel, notably higher than the $83.46 average recorded in July. Because the UAE Fuel Price Committee determines rates based on international refined-product benchmarks rather than a direct, real-time link to crude prices, the monthly average plays a more significant role than a single week’s performance.
The current pricing mechanism, in place since August 2015, accounts for international benchmarks, operating expenses, and transportation costs. This creates a natural lag between global market movements and local pump prices. Consequently, while the recent dip in crude is a positive sign, the sustained higher prices seen earlier in August—when Brent climbed toward $94.39 by August 21—temper expectations for a steep decrease.
Potential Impact on Household Budgets
- 60-litre tank (Special 95): Currently costs Dh209.40
- 80-litre tank (Special 95): Currently costs Dh279.20
- Impact of 10-fils reduction: Savings of Dh6 to Dh8 per tank
- Impact of 20-fils reduction: Savings of Dh12 to Dh16 per tank
These figures illustrate how potential adjustments would affect consumer spending, though they are not forecasts of the official rates. For instance, a reduction of 10 fils per litre would lower the cost of a 60-litre fill-up to Dh203.40, while a 20-fils cut would result in savings of Dh12 for the same volume. Achieving a price point of Dh3 per litre would require a drastic adjustment—a 49-fils drop for Special 95 or a 60-fils decline for Super 98—which current market data does not support.
Market analysts suggest that a scenario involving stable prices or a modest reduction is more plausible than a significant drop. If prices were to shift by 5 to 15 fils, Super 98 could potentially range between Dh3.45 and Dh3.55, while Special 95 might sit between Dh3.34 and Dh3.44. However, these ranges are purely illustrative. The specific calculations used by the Fuel Price Committee are not publicly disclosed, making it impossible to derive exact future rates with precision.
Ultimately, the UAE’s market-linked policy ensures that domestic fuel costs eventually reflect long-term trends in global energy markets. While the recent easing of geopolitical risk premiums and the slight improvement in shipping conditions are favorable, the higher average costs maintained throughout August will likely influence the committee’s final decision. Motorists should anticipate that today’s announcement will continue to align local rates with the broader, month-long performance of international refined-product benchmarks. The report also notes that although oil flows through the strategic waterway remain inconsistent, the decline followed speculation over progress towards an agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The report also notes that compared with about $83.46 in July, according to market estimates, but the broader August picture makes a large reduction less certain: Brent’s average closing price during much of August was around $87.70. The report also notes that that distinction is particularly important this month. The report also notes that fell below $80 during the first week and then rallied strongly as geopolitical concerns returned, brent closed at $83.77 on August 3. The report also notes that but it remains about 6.6% above the $83.77 close at the beginning of August, friday’s $89.31 settlement therefore represents a decline of more than 5% in a week. The report also notes that this helps explain why September’s fuel-price calculation is more complicated than simply looking at Brent’s latest decline. The report also notes that the biggest change has been the rapid unwinding of part of oil’s geopolitical risk premium.