President Donald Trump’s political stature is currently so diminished that he has squandered the Republican Party’s traditional advantages on two major issues that almost always favor the GOP: the economy and national security. These pillars, which have historically served as reliable foundations for Republican electoral success, are now showing signs of unprecedented vulnerability as the administration struggles with the fallout of its policy decisions.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted this week showed Democrats and Republicans virtually tied on the issue of “war, foreign conflicts and terrorism.” The GOP previously led on that issue by 11 points following the 2024 election. Today, 37% of US adults say Democrats have a better approach, compared to 36% who say the GOP does. These findings remain within the margin of error, yet the fact that the parties are even this close is historically significant.
Fox News polling from a couple of weeks ago showed a similar trend. On national security, 50% of registered voters preferred the GOP, compared to 48% who preferred the Democratic Party. This represents a significant shift from the 12-point edge Republicans held in January, prior to the outbreak of the Iran war. Fox polling has regularly tested how registered voters compare the two parties on terrorism and national security; until the Iran war, Democrats had never even been within double-digits of the Republican Party on either issue.
Republicans have also led consistently on national security in Gallup polling. Democrats only nosed ahead on that issue once in the 21st century: in 2007. Across 22 polls conducted since a year after 9/11, Democrats have led on that issue only once—again, in 2007—and most of the time Republicans led by double-digits. Gallup’s data on which party is better on “international terrorism and military threats” has been even more lopsided in the GOP’s favor.
The most recent Fox survey showed Democrats leading on that issue by nine points, 54%-45%. That was the biggest Democratic advantage since 2006, when they led by 20 points. Meanwhile, when Democrats took a lead on the economy back in April, it marked the first time they were ahead since 2010, shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that began during the George W. Bush administration.
Polling back in May showed a closer split between the two parties on the economy, with 35% of adults preferring Democrats, compared to 33% who preferred the GOP. The poll previously asked people to choose between congressional Republicans and congressional Democrats, and the last time Republicans did not lead on that question was 2009. These numbers illustrate that Trump greatly miscalculated the fallout from launching the Iran war and implementing controversial policies like his global tariffs.
By launching the tariffs, Trump effectively took ownership of the economic picture. He then compounded negative public sentiment by shrugging off responsibility to address Americans’ inflation concerns. Now, he is contending with a still-stagnant economic picture, with the economy shedding 23,000 jobs in July. While the Democratic Party remains unpopular in many polls, the fact that they have taken a lead on the economy is a notable development.
The national security numbers are perhaps even more striking because Democrats rarely compete with Republicans on this topic. Just as education and health care almost always favor Democrats, national security and defending the homeland are signature GOP issues. That remained true even when Bush launched wars in the Middle East that became unpopular. Trump, however, seems to have handled the Iran war in a way that has left Americans viewing Democrats on equal footing with the GOP on the party’s own traditional turf. The report also notes that but the numbers even being that close is basically unheard of.