On July 25, the Greek-owned supertanker Kiku arrived at Qatar’s Mesaieed oil export terminal, a massive 30-berth facility located 25 miles south of Doha. Four days later, the vessel—a Very Large Crude Carrier measuring over 1,000 feet—departed, navigating the Persian Gulf at a steady 13 knots. However, on July 31, shortly after 2 p.m. near the coast of Dubai, the Kiku vanished from tracking systems after disabling its AIS transponder, which broadcasts a ship’s identity, speed, and position. The vessel reappeared on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz at 10 a.m. on August 1, marking a shift in how regional producers are managing energy exports.
This tactic of “dark” transits, often conducted under US military escort, has become a vital strategy to avoid Iranian drone attacks, such as the one that targeted the Kiku a month earlier. By chartering tankers to move through the strait with transponders disabled, Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari, and Emirati oil companies have shifted the burden of insurance and security risks from commercial shippers to the US government and the producers themselves. Data from the US Department of Energy indicates this approach has been effective, with oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz averaging between 8 million and 9 million barrels per day.
The clandestine operations have fundamentally altered the regional energy landscape. Satellite imagery and radar data reveal a complex web of activity that transponder signals often miss. For instance, satellite photos from August 14 show rows of vessels arcing around the coast of Oman to stay as far from Iran as possible. According to Kpler, approximately 80% of traffic through the strait over the past two weeks has utilized these “dark” transit methods. In the Gulf of Oman, numerous ship-to-ship transfers have been observed, with oil subsequently routed to markets in China, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.
The Kiku’s journey exemplifies this new operational model. After its initial transit, the ship anchored near the Emirati port of Fujairah, where it engaged in a week-long ship-to-ship transfer with the Nave Electron. The two vessels separated on August 8, with the Nave Electron departing for Ningbo, China. The Kiku remained off the coast of Fujairah until August 14, when it went dark again, reemerging in the Persian Gulf the following day to return to Qatar. Similar activity was noted on August 7, when two Greek-owned tankers were detected together in the Gulf of Oman, and on August 14, when the Front Otra was identified in the Arabian Sea en route to Taiwan.
These maneuvers are occurring as the ongoing war, which has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supplies for six months, reaches a critical juncture. Producers are facing a “crushing economic operation” as the United States implements a strategy to strangle Iranian ports through a prolonged naval blockade. This has pushed oil prices toward $100 a barrel. To compensate for the volatility, Saudi Arabia has rerouted approximately 5 million barrels of oil per day through its own pipelines, while production has increased in Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela by over 1 million barrels per day.
Despite these efforts, the global energy market remains under significant strain. The United States has released 400 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, leaving emergency stockpiles at their lowest levels since the early 1980s. Globally, oil inventories have been depleted by as much as 1.9 billion barrels during the conflict. Furthermore, the fuel market faces its own crisis: three of the world’s four major refining hubs are in distress. The conflict has damaged Middle Eastern refineries, while Russian output has been hampered by Ukrainian drone strikes and domestic fuel shortages. China, typically a major exporter, has also begun limiting its refined fuel exports to protect its own domestic supply, leaving US refineries along the Gulf Coast to manage the shortfall. The report also notes that it was as if the Kiku simply disappeared, to tracking services that monitor worldwide maritime traffic. The report also notes that using transponder data, would suggest, that’s a meaningful amount of crude – roughly double what Wall Street oil analysts and shipping trackers like Kpler. The report also notes that it’s a dangerous and expensive gambit that offers some temporary relief to the oil market. The report also notes that this workaround buys time, but with permanent solutions – a negotiated end to the war and lasting plan for the strait – remaining elusive. The report also notes that china’s reliance on its massive oil inventory – a key factor in preventing $150 oil – won’t last forever. The report also notes that and bond market investors and voters are running out of patience with high prices. The report also notes that just 23 miles wide, it’s not a perfect solution – the strait is famously narrow. The report also notes that and radar can still spot a ship even with its transponder off, there aren’t many places to hide.