The ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has become a central theater of the Iran war, characterized by months of conflicting claims from both Tehran and Washington. While both nations have asserted dominance over the waterway, recent data indicates a significant shift in maritime activity, suggesting that Iran’s ability to dictate traffic through the region is diminishing.
According to shipping data from Kpler, which monitors vessel transponders and satellite imagery, more than 80% of ship transits over the past two weeks have utilized the Omani route. This UN-authorized channel is one that Iran has consistently opposed. Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, noted that the situation increasingly points to Iran having at least partially lost its control over the strait. This represents a dramatic reversal from a month ago, when virtually no traffic was recorded on the Omani path.
The reduction in traffic along Iran’s preferred routes has effectively crippled its ability to collect tolls, a practice it engaged in during the spring. Although a Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran expired this week—theoretically allowing Tehran to resume toll collection—Kpler reports that the country has been unable to enforce such demands. Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, remarked that most regional stakeholders are unwilling to comply with Iran’s toll requests, making the Omani route the most logical alternative.
To bypass Iranian aggression, major producers including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have chartered Very Large Crude Carriers to move oil out of the Persian Gulf, often transferring cargo to other vessels outside the high-risk zones in the Gulf of Oman, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Many of these ships operate with their transponders disabled for extended periods to evade detection, creating a segment of “dark traffic” that remains difficult to track through standard methods.
Despite these evasive maneuvers, the U.S. military maintains a significant presence in the area, allowing it to monitor vessel movements more effectively than previous estimates suggested. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported last week that combined oil transits through the strait and rerouted paths reached approximately 15 million barrels per day, a figure nearing pre-war averages of 20 million barrels. This led President Donald Trump to claim on Monday that the U.S. now holds “total control over the strait,” a statement that remains a subject of debate given that oil flows have not fully recovered to pre-war levels.
Pickering suggested that if Iran’s primary objective was to be in charge, it was never fully in control to begin with, though he noted that the country continues to exert a level of deterrence. Nevertheless, the recent surge in successful transits indicates that Iran’s influence has significantly weakened compared to earlier in the conflict.
The regional landscape remains complex as Oman and Iran engage in separate negotiations to restore freedom of navigation without U.S. involvement, a move that has drawn criticism from the Trump administration. While the outcome of these talks remains uncertain, analysts like Lipow advise caution regarding the conflicting headlines. Ultimately, he concluded, it is fair to assess that Iran has lost a meaningful degree of control over the vital waterway. The report also notes that both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand – and the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt, over the past several months. The report also notes that according to Kpler, but it doesn’t appear the country has been able to. The report also notes that “I would take all the information and headlines ‘under advisement,’” said Lipow. The report also notes that however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway, at the moment. The report also notes that iran, declaring the strait under its control, has attacked dozens of ships that tried to to travel the waterway via the north coast of Oman. The report also notes that most ships have recently chosen to ignore Iran’s demands and cross the strait with the promise of protection from US naval forces, despite the risk. The report also notes that that so-called dark traffic appears to have eluded some data-tracking services like Kpler as well.